南亚的COVID-19历史和监测:最新的流行病学评估
Lori A Post1,2, Alan G Soetikno3, Scott A Wu3
1Buehler Center for Health Policy and Economics, Robert J Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States.
JMIR public health and surveillance
|July 16, 2024
概括
现在,COVID-19在南亚已经流行,在世卫组织宣布前一年多的时间里,传播率低于流行病值. 监测数据证实了疫情阶段的结束,强调了未来的预防政策.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 传染病的动态传染病的动态.
- 公共卫生监督 公共卫生监督
背景情况:
- 这项研究扩展了2020年南亚的COVID-19流行病监测,增加了两年的数据.
- 它评估了COVID-19从流行病转变为流行病的情况,与世卫组织于2023年5月5日结束公共卫生紧急状态的同时.
研究的目的:
- 为了测量世界卫生组织宣布日期附近的南亚地区的流行病扩散或收缩.
- 用动态和基因组监测来描述该地区的流行病史,并将世卫组织声明窗口置于背景中.
- 提供关于南亚COVID-19大流行病进程的历史视角.
主要方法:
- 更新了传统的监测数据和动态小组估计.
- 利用了来自GISAID的基因组监测数据,用于关注的变种 (Nextclade和Pangolin命名).
- 进行了代的单面t测试,以评估区域周速是否超过了10的爆发值.
主要成果:
- 在世卫组织宣布疫情前一年多的时间里,该地区的疫情速度一直低于疫情值.
- 从2021年12月起,Omicron成为主要的变种.
- 在整个大流行期间,速度等于10的滚动t测试在统计学上是微不足道的.
结论:
- 在世卫组织宣布疫情前一年,南亚的COVID-19传播率低于疫情值,这表明流行病状态.
- 监测指标证实了到2023年5月结束的流行病阶段.
- 未来的流行病准备工作应该优先考虑一个流行病学工作组,广泛进行测试和追踪接触者.
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