使用时空占用模型计算不完美的检测,同时估计菌菌病的流行性
Staci A Hepler1, Kimberly A Kaufeld2, David Kline3
1Department of Statistical Sciences, Wake Forest University, Winston-Salem, NC 27109, United States.
American journal of epidemiology
|July 16, 2024
概括
由于气候变化,山谷热 (Coccidioidomycosis) 正在蔓延. 一个新的模型揭示了目前报告范围之外的特有地区,强调了扩大对这种真菌感染的监测的必要性.
科学领域:
- 环境流行病学环境流行病学
- 传染病生态学 传染病生态学
- 空间统计的空间统计.
背景情况:
- 菌根性菌病 (山谷热) 的发病率正在增加,可能是由于气候变化扩大了Coccidioides真菌的特有范围.
- 目前的谷热病例数据是由于报告不足和错误诊断而导致Coccidioides流行病的不完美的代理.
- 准确地绘制Coccidioides流行病的地图对于公共卫生监测和资源分配至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和应用贝叶斯的时空占用模型来估计Coccidioides的流行性.
- 为了解决谷热病例数据中不完美的检测.
- 识别具有高endemicity的地区,并了解影响检测的因素.
主要方法:
- 使用贝叶斯的时空占用模型.
- 分析了月度,县级的谷热病例的存在/缺席数据.
- 将不完美的检测,降水和农业因素纳入模型.
主要成果:
- 在加利福尼亚州南部,亚利桑那州和新墨西哥州估计高Coccidioides特有性.
- 在德克萨斯州西部,科罗拉多州东部和华盛顿州东南部确定了特有地区,这些地区缺乏强制性报告.
- 发现降水和病例检测之间的反向关系,以及与农业的积极关联.
结论:
- 该模型提供了一种可靠的方法来估计Coccidioides特有性,尽管病例数据不完善.
- 调查结果表明,特有的范围正在扩大,并突出需要加强监测的地区.
- 结果可以为公共卫生战略和强制性病例报告的潜在扩展提供信息.
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