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Updated: Jun 20, 2025

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Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
Published on: July 24, 2016
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在河流域的生态安全模式的多场景分析和优化策略
Xin Luo1, Fangjun Le1, Yishan Zhang1
1College of Forestry, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou, 730070, China.
Journal of environmental management
|July 17, 2024
概括
在河流域优化生态安全模式 (ESP) 对于平衡生态保护和经济增长至关重要. 该研究显示,生态保护方案最能保持生态完整性和连接性.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 地理信息系统 地理信息系统
背景情况:
- 河流域 (WRB) 在平衡生态保护和经济发展方面面临挑战.
- 建立有效的生态安全模式 (ESP) 是确保生态安全 (ES) 的关键.
研究的目的:
- 根据2040年不同的未来情景,在WRB中预测土地利用变化 (LUCC) 和分析生态安全模式 (ESP).
- 确定关键的生态节点和走廊,以优化ESP.
主要方法:
- 结合多目标规划 (MOP) 和补丁生成土地利用模拟 (PLUS) 模型用于LUCC投影.
- 电路理论的应用,以产生生态走廊和确定生态节点.
- 在生态保护 (EP),经济发展 (ED) 和自然发展 (ND) 场景下对ESP进行比较分析.
主要成果:
- 在EP情景中,有利的土地覆盖率 (森林,草地,水) 和最小的碎片化比例最高.
- 在ED情景显示显著的城市扩张和分散的生态源区 (8018.82平方公里).
- 在ND情景中,生态源区 (8474.99平方公里) 和空间模式与2020年基线非常相似.
结论:
- EP情景提供了最优的生态环境,而ED情景由于碎片化而带来风险.
- 保持生态源的完整性和连接性,以及保护关键节点,对于ESP优化至关重要.
- 建议"三个区域,三个带和一个中心"的空间战略用于WRB的可持续发展.
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