不完美疫苗接种的社会与个人年龄相关成本
Fabio A C C Chalub1, Paulo Doutor1, Paula Patrício1
1Center for Mathematics and Applications (NOVA Math) and Department of Mathematics, NOVA FCT, Caparica, 2829-516, Portugal.
Mathematical biosciences
|July 17, 2024
概括
接种疫苗可以将疾病转移到年龄较大的年龄,如果疾病对成年人来说更严重,则会增加成本. 这项研究模拟了这些效应,以寻找公共卫生和社会福利的最佳疫苗接种策略.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学生物学 数学生物学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 疫苗接种减少了病原体的循环,增加了感染的平均年龄.
- 如果老年人群的疾病成本更高,这种年龄转移可能会有害.
研究的目的:
- 分析年龄结构化人口中接种疫苗的社会和个人成本.
- 确定疫苗接种产生积极社会影响的条件.
- 探索在不损害社会福利的情况下推广疫苗接种的战略.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个年龄结构化的人口传播模型,其中包含了不完美的疫苗接种.
- 在青少年和成年人群中建模确定性病原体动态.
- 分析了年龄相关的疾病成本和年龄独立的疾病动态.
主要成果:
- 描述了疫苗接种具有积极社会影响的参数区域.
- 确定了疫苗接种游戏的纳什平衡.
- 疫苗接种策略将个人激励与社会福利相协调的情况.
结论:
- 接种疫苗的净益处严重取决于特定年龄的疾病成本.
- 最佳的疫苗接种策略需要平衡减少传播与潜在的与年龄相关的成本增加.
- 集体策略可以加强自愿接种疫苗,同时保护社会福利.
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