模拟海上网络堵塞对全球供应链的动态影响
Shen Qu1,2,3, Yunlei She1,2,3, Qi Zhou1,2,3
1Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China.
Innovation (Cambridge (Mass.))
|July 18, 2024
概括
全球供应链因诸如苏伊士运河堵塞等事件而面临中断. 一个新的基于代理的模型揭示了这些事件造成了重大的全球经济损失,影响了超越直接地区的国家,并强调了需要加强性战略的需要.
科学领域:
- 复杂系统科学 复杂系统科学
- 供应链管理 供应链管理
- 海上物流的海上物流.
背景情况:
- 最近的全球事件,如流行病和极端天气,暴露了供应链的漏洞.
- 2021年3月的苏伊士运河封锁扰乱了432艘船只,造成了重大的经济影响,并突出了模拟这种破坏的局限性.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证基于代理的复杂网络模型,用于模拟运输网络堵塞的时空影响.
- 量化苏伊士运河堵塞事件造成的全球经济损失.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个基于代理的复杂网络模型,集成频繁更新的海事数据.
- 该模型被应用于2021年3月的苏伊士运河堵塞作为一个案例研究.
主要成果:
- 苏伊士运河封锁导致全球损失估计为1369亿美元,其中印度损失75%.
- 破坏影响超出了直接受影响的国家和部门的范围,证明了相互关联的全球影响.
- 全球损失与阻塞持续时间和复杂的事件后趋势有非线性关系.
结论:
- 开发的模型有效地模拟了交通网络堵塞的广泛影响.
- 该模型可以作为供应链影响的早期预警系统,并为增强应对未来干扰的弹性提供信息.
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