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了解HIV对MSM人口中mopox传播的影响:一项数学建模研究

Andrew Omame^1,2, Qing Han^3,4,5, Sarafa A Iyaniwura⁶

¹Abdus Salam School of Mathematical Sciences, Government College University, Lahore, Pakistan.

Infectious Disease Modelling

|July 18, 2024

概括

人类免疫缺陷病毒 (HIV) 可以加速男性与男性发生性关系 (MSM) 的男性中mpox的传播. 结合艾滋病毒治疗和安全性行为的做法对于控制这一群体中mpox爆发至关重要.

科学领域:

流行病学流行病学
数学建模的数学建模
公共卫生公共卫生

背景情况:

2022-2023年mopox疫情呈现出明显的流行病学和临床特征,性接触被确定为主要传播途径.
与男性发生性关系的男性 (MSM) 社区受到mpox的不成比例影响,也受到人类免疫缺陷病毒 (HIV) 感染的不成比例影响.
由于共享的传播途径和高性活动,了解艾滋病毒和mopox在MSM人口中的相互作用至关重要.

研究的目的:

调查艾滋病毒对MSM人口中mpox动态的潜在影响.
分析HIV-mpox同时感染的影响,考虑到HIV阳性个体中mpox易感性增加.
评估抗逆转录病毒疗法 (ART) 和行为干预措施在控制并发感染传播方面的有效性.

主要方法:

开发一种机械数学模型,模拟HIV和mopox同时感染的动态.
将艾滋病毒治疗与ART纳入模型.
包含一种情景,在这种情景中,艾滋病毒感染增加了对mopox.

主要成果:

艾滋病毒可以在MSM人口中显著促进mopox的传播.
抗逆转录病毒疗法 (ART) 单独可能不足以完全控制mopox疫情.
将ART与适度使用避孕套或减少性接触相结合,有效地减少了mopox的传播.

结论:

有效的艾滋病毒控制,包括大量的ART坚持和适度的避孕套使用,对于减轻MSM中mpox传播至关重要.
针对艾滋病毒和mopox的干预措施是必要的,以应对这些相互交织的流行病的复合影响.
公共卫生战略必须考虑艾滋病毒和mpox在脆弱人群中的协同效应.

关键词:

控制复制编号控制复制编号艾滋病毒-mpox同时感染.传染病建模传染病模型侵袭繁殖号码侵袭繁殖号码微型企业,微型企业,微型企业.灵敏度分析是一种灵敏度分析.

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