在动态中预测中国海上紧急病人的统计机器学习模型:ARIMA模型,SARIMA模型和动态贝叶斯网络模型
Pengyu Yang1, Pengfei Cheng2, Na Zhang3
1Department of Nursing, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China.
Frontiers in public health
|July 18, 2024
概括
预测海上紧急情况对于公共卫生至关重要. 与动态贝叶斯网络 (DBN) 和自动回归集成移动平均线 (ARIMA) 模型相比,季节自动回归集成移动平均线 (SARIMA) 模型在预测救援事件方面表现出更高的准确性.
科学领域:
- 海上应急医疗的海上紧急医疗
- 公共卫生监督是对公共卫生的监督.
- 时间序列预测时间序列预测
背景情况:
- 在海上救援人员是一个重要的全球公共卫生问题.
- 对海上紧急情况的有效预防和控制策略需要准确的预测模型.
- 现有研究强调了急诊医学中需要先进的分析工具的需要.
研究的目的:
- 为海上紧急事件开发和比较动态贝叶斯网络 (DBN),自动回归集成移动平均线 (ARIMA) 和季节性自动回归集成移动平均线 (SARIMA) 模型的预测准确度.
- 分析海上紧急医疗服务 (EMS) 患者数据,以确定趋势并改进应对策略.
主要方法:
- 分析海上紧急护理病例数,来自海南省的五家医院 (2016年1月 - 2020年12月).
- 制造和校准ARIMA,SARIMA和DBN模型.
- 使用开发的模型,预测2021年1月至2021年12月的紧急响应者数量.
- 使用平均绝对误差 (MAE),根平均平方误差 (RMSE) 和确定系数 (R2) 评估模型预测精度.
主要成果:
- 萨里马模型表现最好,显示最低的RMSE (4.43) 和MAE (2.81),以及最高的R2 (0.54).
- 在DBN模型中,RMSE为5.45,MAE为3.85,R2为0.44.
- 在ARIMA模型中,RMSE为5.75,MAE为4.13,R2为0.21.的准确度最低.
- 萨里马的预测与实际的救援人数密切一致,表明其在装配和预测方面的优越性.
结论:
- 季节自动回归集成移动平均线 (SARIMA) 模型是预测海上紧急情况最有效的.
- 虽然动态贝叶斯网络 (DBN) 可以捕获可变相关性,但SARIMA在这个特定应用程序的预测准确度方面表现出色.
- 调查结果为开发海上紧急情况的增强预防和控制策略提供了宝贵的见解.
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