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基于时间过渡的飞机周转时间动态预测,基于时间过渡的彼得里网
Yanyu Cui1, Linyan Ma2, Qingmiao Ding1
1College of Aeronautical Engineering, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin, China.
PloS one
|July 18, 2024
概括
准确的飞机周转时间预测对于机场效率至关重要. 这项研究提出了一种新的贝叶斯方法,使用时间过渡培养网,实现高准确度预测飞行周转时间.
科学领域:
- 运营研究 运营研究
- 航空航天工程 航空航天工程
背景情况:
- 高效的机场运营依赖于准确的飞机周转时间预测.
- 协调地面服务对于提高机场整体效率至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发飞机周转时间的动态预测方法.
- 通过准确的预测,提高飞行准时性和机场清理水平.
主要方法:
- 对飞机转机操作过程的分析.
- 开发一个时间过渡Petri Net (TTPN) 模型来描述操作.
- 使用贝叶斯定理和历史飞行数据设计一个动态周转时间预测方法.
- 在事先的概率分布验证中应用沙皮罗-威尔克试验.
主要成果:
- 拟议的TTPN模型有效地描述了飞行周转过程和操作逻辑.
- 使用实际着陆时间的贝叶斯预测方法表现出强的性能.
- 对来自中国主要机场的真实数据的验证结果显示,平方根平均误差为3.75分钟,平均绝对误差为3.40分钟.
结论:
- 开发的方法提供了准确的飞机周转时间预测.
- 这种方法对提高飞行准时性和机场运营效率做出了重大贡献.
- 整合TTPN和贝叶斯方法为机场管理提供了一个强大的解决方案.
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