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在更温暖的世界下,阿拉伯半岛极端温度的扩大
Buri Vinodhkumar1,2,3, Safi Ullah1,2, T V Lakshmi Kumar4
1Biological and Environmental Science and Engineering Division, Environmental Science and Engineering Program, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), 23955-6900, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia.
Scientific reports
|July 18, 2024
概括
全球变暖显著增加了阿拉伯半岛的极端温度. 预测显示,在各种变暖情景中,夏季最高气温和冬季最低气温都将上升,需要采取适应策略.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气象学 天气学
背景情况:
- 巴黎协定和IPCC的报告强调了不同全球变暖水平 (GWL) 的气候变化风险.
- 由于气候变暖,阿拉伯半岛 (AP) 特别容易受到极端高温事件的影响.
研究的目的:
- 调查阿拉伯半岛在各种全球变暖水平 (1.5°C,2.0°C,3.0°C,4.0°C) 和共享社会经济途径 (SSPs) 下的未来温度变化和极端情况.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自美国宇航局地球交换全球每日下调尺度预测的27个模型的高分辨率数据集,用于结合模型对比项目第6阶段 (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6).
- 分析了不同GWL和SSP (SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP5-8.5) 的温度和极端事件数据.
主要成果:
- NEX-GDDP-CMIP6模型准确地捕获了极端温度事件.
- 预计夏季最高气温 (0.11-0.67°C/十年) 和冬季最低气温 (0.09-0.70°C/十年) 的增加.
- 观察到温度极端的显著升温,在所有情景中增加温暖极端和减少寒冷极端.
结论:
- 结果提供了对全球变暖下AP温度变化的全面评估.
- 结果可以为该地区制定关键的气候适应和减缓战略提供信息.
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