一种优化方法用于规划预防性干旱管理措施.
Ana M Paez-Trujillo1, J Sebastian Hernandez-Suarez2, Leonardo Alfonso3
1IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, P.O. Box 3015, 2601 DA Delft, the Netherlands; Delft University of Technology, Water Resources Section, P.O. Box 5048, 2600 GA Delft, the Netherlands; Fundación Natura Colombia, Carrera 21 No. 39-43, Bogotá, Colombia.
The Science of the total environment
|July 19, 2024
概括
预防性干旱管理措施 (PDMMs) 可以减少干旱的严重程度,但它们的有效性各不相同. 由于农业和水文干旱管理之间的权衡,需要仔细规划.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 水文学的水文学
- 适应气候变化 适应气候变化
背景情况:
- 由于气候变化,全球干旱的影响正在增加.
- 需要提高抗旱能力和适应能力.
- 预防性干旱管理措施 (PDMMs) 提供了一种减轻干旱风险的策略.
研究的目的:
- 优化PDMM的分配,以减少农业和水文干旱的严重程度.
- 在PDMM规划中探索多目标优化的实用性.
- 分析实施PDMM的权衡和复杂性.
主要方法:
- 利用优化方法与多标准决策相结合.
- 开发管理场景来评估PDMM的有效性.
- 分析了PDMM影响的时间和空间变化.
主要成果:
- 实施PDMM可以减少农业和水文干旱的严重程度.
- 管理场景揭示了权衡,其中PDMMs可能有利于一种干旱类型,同时对另一个产生负面影响.
- 在盆地内,PDMM的影响表现出显著的时间和空间变化.
结论:
- 多目标优化对于规划PDMMs.是有价值的.
- 定制PDMM实施是必不可少的,考虑到盆地特定的特征和干旱类型的相互作用.
- 了解PDMM的复杂,可变的影响对于有效干旱管理至关重要.
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