预计2015年至2040年期间在德国患有多发性硬化症的人数
Kira Baginski1, Dina Voeltz1, Annika Hoyer1
1Biostatistics and Medical Biometry, Medical School OWL, Bielefeld University, Bielefeld.
Multiple sclerosis and related disorders
|July 20, 2024
概括
预计到2040年,德国多发性硬化症病例的数量将增加75-85%,预计到2040年,多发性硬化症病例的数量将增加75-85%. 多发性硬化症患病率的增加需要积极的医疗保健规划和资源配置.
科学领域:
- 神经学 神经学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 卫生经济学 卫生经济学
背景情况:
- 全球多发性硬化症 (MS) 患病率最近显著增加.
- 德国的MS患病率在欧洲最高.
- 准确的未来预测对于医疗保健规划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 预测到2040年,德国未来的多发性硬化症患者人数.
- 为资源分配和医疗保健战略提供信息.
主要方法:
- 利用德国法定医疗保险数据来估计特定年龄和性别的MS患病率.
- 应用数学模型将流行率,发病率和死亡率联系起来.
- 根据各种发病率和死亡率情景,对德国未来人口结构 (2015-2040) 的预测流行率.
主要成果:
- 一个静态预测表明,到2040年,MS病例将下降8%.
- 考虑到发病率和死亡率趋势的现实情景,预计到2040年,MS病例将达到453,000至477,000例 (增长75-85%).
- 据预测,女性受影响的比例大约是男性的2.5倍.
结论:
- 预计到2040年,德国的MS患病率将大幅上升 (75-85%).
- 通过不考虑发病率和死亡率的时间趋势来低估患病率,可能导致医疗保健资源分配不足.
- 未来的医疗保健规划必须考虑这些不断上升的MS流行趋势.
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