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生物指标生物多样性热点中的水生昆虫受到气候变化风险

Natália F Souza¹, Juliana S Leal², Luara Tourinho³

¹Graduate Program in Ecology, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

The Science of the total environment

|July 21, 2024

概括

气候变化威胁着大西洋森林中的水生昆虫 (Ephemeroptera,Plecoptera,Trichoptera),其中Plecoptera的风险最大. 未来的预测显示范围的大幅缩减,影响了重要的生物监测工作.

科学领域:

生态生态学生态生态学
气候变化生物学气候变化生物学
保护生物学保护生物学

背景情况:

水生昆虫,特别是虫,虫和三虫 (EPT),是重要的淡水生物指标.
气候变化对热带水生昆虫生物多样性的影响,特别是EPT,仍未得到充分研究.
EPT是河流和溪流生物监测计划的重要指标.

研究的目的:

预测气候变化对大西洋森林生物多样性热点EPT分布范围和丰富性的影响.
为了确定EPT生物多样性的潜在气候避难所.
评估预计的变化对生物监测计划的影响.

主要方法:

生态利基模型被用来预测未来的分布.
气候变化场景被用来评估物种范围的变化.
分析的重点是大西洋森林中的EPT属.

主要成果:

由于未来的气候变化,EPT面临着高风险,Plecoptera是最脆弱的秩序.
观察到分析EPT属的预测范围约为90%的收缩.
预计Plecoptera (>50%),Trichoptera (~14%) 和Ephemeroptera (~7%) 种类的分布会出现显著的收缩.

结论:

大西洋森林中的高海拔地区可能成为EPT的关键气候避难所.
预计EPT分布和丰度的变化可能会对热带生物监测计划产生重大影响.
保护规划必须整合未来的气候条件,并考虑生物指标组合的潜在变化.

关键词:

大西洋森林大西洋森林大西洋森林.生态利基模型生态利基模型全球变化全球变化巨大的无脊椎动物种类分布模型是一种物种分布模型.

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