数字化对可持续发展和气候变化缓解的贡献:来自欧盟经济体的经验证据
Zeeshan Arshad1, Mara Madaleno2, Ana I Lillebø3
1CESAM - Centre for Environmental and Marine Studies, Department of Environment and Planning, University of Aveiro, Aveiro, Portugal.
Heliyon
|July 22, 2024
概括
信息技术 (ICT),经济增长和人类发展 (HDI) 减少了甲排放,而仅仅是金融发展就增加了甲排放. 然而,ICT与HDI和金融发展相结合,对减缓气候变化产生了积极的影响.
科学领域:
- 环境经济学环境经济学
- 计量经济学 计量经济学
- 机器学习 机器学习
背景情况:
- 由甲 (CH4) 代替的碳排放是与经济增长和技术进步相关的关键环境问题.
- 金融发展对环境质量的影响仍在争论中,可能会产生负面外部效应.
- 人类发展指数 (HDI) 和信息和通信技术 (ICT) 越来越多地被认为是它们在可持续发展中的角色.
研究的目的:
- 调查欧盟经济中甲排放,经济增长 (GDP),金融发展 (FIN),ICT和HDI之间的关系.
- 通过ICT分析HDI和FIN对碳排放的缓解影响.
- 采用计量经济学和机器学习技术进行可靠的分析.
主要方法:
- 利用计量经济学和机器学习方法,包括STR (线性回归树) 算法.
- 分析了欧盟27个经济体在15年 (2007-2021) 的数据.
- 开发并测试了扩展缓和效应模型.
主要成果:
- 单独来看,ICT,GDP和HDI减少了甲排放,而FIN则增加了甲排放.
- ICT与HDI和ICT与FIN的交叉影响对气候变化减缓产生积极影响.
- 对ICT,HDI和FIN的共同考虑显示了对环境健康的协同效应.
- STR算法预测面板的甲排放量平均增长3.64%.
结论:
- 信息和通信技术,人力资源投资和金融发展的协同作用对于有效缓解气候变化至关重要.
- 政策干预应利用这些综合效应来减少甲排放.
- 确定"绿色"和"黄色"国家为减排战略提供了有针对性的见解.
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