预期传球回报率 (xPT) - - 一种分析足球赛事传球回报率的模型
Andrew J Peters1,2, Nimai Parmar1, Michael Davies1,2
1Faculty of Science & Technology, Middlesex University, London, UK.
Journal of sports sciences
|July 22, 2024
概括
这项研究引入了预期传球回报率 (xPT),这是评估足球运动员传球和保留球的新指标. 在各种游戏情况下,xPT有助于识别那些输球比预期的多或少的球员.
科学领域:
- 运动分析 运动分析
- 足球表现指标 足球表现指标
- 数据科学在体育中的应用
背景情况:
- 评估球员在足球中的表现需要准确的度量,以保持球掌握.
- 传统的指标往往无法解释影响短期成功和营业额的上下文因素.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种新的指标,即预期传球回报率 (xPT),以量化球员传球效率和球掌握率.
- 建立xPT作为足球分析师的关键绩效指标.
主要方法:
- 分析了2020/21英超赛季的赛事和位置数据 (380场比赛,256,433次传球).
- 实施物流混合效应模型来预测通行车周转概率.
- 包括位置数据 (对手的距离,队友的可用性) 来提高模型的准确性.
主要成果:
- 开发的模型通过添加位置特征实现了+6.1 AUC 评分的改善.
- xPT可以区分球员在保持球力方面表现不佳或表现不佳的球员.
结论:
- 预期传球回报率 (xPT) 提供了对球员传球表现的上下文感知度量.
- 这一指标使分析师能够识别出比预期更容易或更容易失去控球的球员,有助于球员评估和策略.
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