在东亚和中亚伊斯兰国家使用预测模型 (2020-2030) 评估与水有关的健康风险
Mahwish Anwer Cheema1, Muhammad Hanif1, Olayan Albalawi2
1National College of Business Administration and Economics, Rahim Yar Khan, Pakistan.
Scientific reports
|July 22, 2024
概括
在伊斯兰国家,不安全的饮用水和恶劣的卫生条件可能会增加死亡和残疾. 支持矢量机器准确地预测这些健康影响,指导干预.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 与水有关的挑战,包括不安全的水源,不充分的卫生设施和不良的洗手设施,构成严重的健康风险.
- 预计水污染会增加负面的健康结果,导致死亡人数和残疾调整寿命年 (DALYs) 的增加.
- 霍乱,腹和痢疾等由水传播的疾病因水质和卫生条件不佳而加剧,导致急性健康危机和长期问题.
研究的目的:
- 从2020年到2030年,评估与东亚和中亚伊斯兰国家与水相关挑战相关的健康结果.
- 为了比较各种模型的预测准确度,以预测与水问题相关的死亡和DALY.
- 为利益相关者提供有关水资源管理和公共卫生干预措施的有效策略的信息.
主要方法:
- 使用的预测模型:自行回归集成移动平均 (ARIMA),指数平滑,支向量机 (SVM) 和神经网络.
- 使用平均绝对百分比误差 (MAPE) 评估模型性能.
- 专注于预测与水有关的健康挑战所导致的死亡和DALY.
主要成果:
- 支持矢量机器 (SVM) 在预测死亡和DALY方面表现出最高的准确性.
- 在预测能力方面,SVM的表现优于ARIMA,指数平滑和神经网络.
- 该研究发现,与水相关挑战相关的负面健康影响可能会增加.
结论:
- 在研究区域中,SVM是预测水相关健康结果的最有效模型.
- 调查结果强调,迫切需要改善水资源管理和公共卫生战略.
- 干预措施至关重要,以减轻由于水污染和卫生条件不佳而导致的死亡和DALY预计的增加.
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