气候和气候的神经总循环模型
Dmitrii Kochkov1, Janni Yuval2, Ian Langmore3
1Google Research, Mountain View, CA, USA. dkochkov@google.com.
Nature
|July 22, 2024
概括
一个新的通用循环模型 (GCM) 将深度学习与基于物理的模拟集成在一起,以改善天气和气候预测. 与现有方法相比,这种混合方法可以节省计算和竞争性预测技能.
科学领域:
- 地球系统科学
- 气候模型
- 机器学习应用
背景情况:
- 一般循环模型 (GCM) 对于天气和气候预测至关重要,它们依赖于基于物理的模拟.
- 最近的进展表明机器学习模型在确定性天气预报中与GCM相匹配或超越.
- 现有的机器学习模型缺乏长期气候模拟的稳定性,
研究的目的:
- 开发一种新的通用循环模型 (GCM),将可微分的基于物理的动力学与机器学习结合起来.
- 评估GCM在确定性天气预报,整体预报和长期气候模拟方面的表现.
- 评估新混合GCM的计算效率和稳定性.
主要方法:
- 开发了一种混合GCM,称为NeuralGCM,它结合了可分化的大气动力学解决器和机器学习组件.
- 训练和评估 NeuralGCM 用于天气预报 (1-15天) 的重新分析数据.
- 在140公里分辨率下评估了NeuralGCM在数十年的气候模拟能力.
主要成果:
- NeuralGCM使用最先进的机器学习模型进行短期天气预报 (1-10天).
- 它与欧洲中期天气预报中心的中期预报 (1-15天) 合并.
- 神经GCM准确地跟踪了十年的气候指标,并模拟了热带气旋等新出现的现象,提供了显著的计算节约.
结论:
- 端到端的深度学习与地球系统科学中的传统GCM任务兼容,并且可以增强.
- 混合方法为天气和气候预测提供了计算效率高的替代方案.
- 对于理解地球气候系统所必需的大规模物理模拟,
更多相关视频
13:27Exploring the Effects of Atmospheric Forcings on Evaporation: Experimental Integration of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer and Shallow Subsurface
Published on: June 8, 2015
8.7K
11:26Assessing Cerebral Autoregulation via Oscillatory Lower Body Negative Pressure and Projection Pursuit Regression
Published on: December 10, 2014
12.3K
相关概念视频
What is Weather?
18.2K
Overview
18.2K
General External Flow Characteristics
117
The study of external flow is essential for creating structures and objects that interact efficiently and safely with moving fluids, such as air or water. When a body is immersed in a flowing fluid, it experiences two primary forces: drag, which opposes motion along the flow direction, and lift, which acts perpendicular to the flow. The shape, size, and orientation of the object influence these forces.Streamlined and Blunt Bodies in External FlowObjects in fluid flow are classified as...
117
Precipitation Processes
441
The experimental conditions in a gravimetric analysis should be optimized to maximize the particle size and purity of the obtained precipitate. Ideally, the concentration of the precipitating reagent should be low with effective stirring to maintain low relative supersaturation for the growth of large crystals. In homogeneous precipitation, the precipitant is slowly generated by a chemical reaction in the solution to avoid local reagent excesses. For example, urea decomposes gradually to...
441
What is Climate?
18.4K
Climate refers to the prevailing weather conditions in a specific area over an extended period. As the saying goes, “Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get.” Climate is influenced by geographic factors, such as latitude, terrain, and proximity to bodies of water.
18.4K
Variation of Atmospheric Pressure
2.1K
Change in atmospheric pressure with height is particularly interesting. The decrease in atmospheric pressure with increasing altitude is due to the decreasing gravitational force per unit area as we move away from the surface of the earth.
Assuming the air temperature is constant at a given altitude and that the ideal gas law of thermodynamics describes the atmosphere to a good approximation, one can find the variation of atmospheric pressure with height.
Let p(y) be the atmospheric pressure at...
Assuming the air temperature is constant at a given altitude and that the ideal gas law of thermodynamics describes the atmosphere to a good approximation, one can find the variation of atmospheric pressure with height.
Let p(y) be the atmospheric pressure at...
2.1K
Navier–Stokes Equations
464
For incompressible Newtonian fluids, where density remains constant, stresses show a linear relationship with the deformation rate, defined by normal and shear stresses. Normal stresses depend on the pressure exerted on the fluid and the rate of deformation in specific directions, which determines how fluid flows under varying pressures. Shear stresses, on the other hand, act tangentially across fluid layers. They explain how adjacent fluid layers slide relative to one another, connecting...
464
