目前和未来的罗斯河病毒感染负担归因于澳大利亚气温上升:基于人口的研究
Yohannes Tefera Damtew1,2, Blesson Mathew Varghese1, Olga Anikeeva1
1School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, 5005, Australia.
The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific
|July 23, 2024
概括
气温上升正在增加澳大利亚的罗斯河病毒 (RRV) 负担. 气候变化将使这种媒介传播的疾病恶化,需要特定地点的适应策略来控制和预防.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 气候变化科学 气候变化科学
背景情况:
- 罗斯河病毒 (RRV) 是澳大利亚最需要报告的蚊子传播疾病.
- 传播的增加与全球气温上升和气候变化有关.
- 量化温度归因于RRV负担对于公共卫生规划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 量化澳大利亚气温上升所造成的RRV感染的当前和未来负担.
- 在不同的气候变化和适应情景下预测RRV负担.
- 为RRV预防提供政策和资源配置信息.
主要方法:
- 从澳大利亚疾病负担数据库中利用残疾生活年 (YLDs) 数据 (2003-2018).
- 纳入的相对风险每升高1°C的温度从一个元分析.
- 使用科本-盖格气候区和排放场景 (RCP 4.5,RCP 8.5) 计算可归因于温度的RRV负担.
主要成果:
- 温度上升占澳大利亚RRV负担的19.1% (35.8 ±0.5 YLDs) (2003-2018).
- 未来的预测表明,在两个RCP情景下,即使有调整,RRV负担也会增加.
- 到20世纪50年代,RRV负担可以达到51.1 YLD (RCP 8.5) 没有适应,减少到46.4 YLD与10%的适应.
结论:
- 调查结果提供了关于减轻未来RRV负担的政策决策的证据.
- 特定地点的适应策略对于对气候敏感的疾病控制至关重要.
- 迫切需要对载体传播疾病进行综合公共卫生和气候变化适应规划.
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