分布式光伏电力的短期间歇性评估
Yili Ma1, Yi Huang1, Yue Yuan1
1School of Electrical and Power Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, China.
Heliyon
|July 23, 2024
概括
本研究引入了一种新的方法来评估分布式光伏功率的间歇性,使用一般化极端价值理论. 它解决了小样本数据中的挑战,帮助储能规划和电网稳定.
科学领域:
- 电气工程 电气工程
- 电力系统 电力系统
- 可再生能源可再生能源是可再生能源.
背景情况:
- 分布式光伏 (PV) 电力为电力系统运行带来了重大不确定性.
- 间歇性对电网稳定性构成了比简单的功率波动更大的挑战.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种可靠的方法来评估分布式光伏电力的间歇性,特别是对于罕见但具有影响力的事件.
- 为储能配置和项目开发决策提供数据驱动的支持.
主要方法:
- 利用通用极值 (GEV) 理论来解决"小样本大差距"间歇性事件.
- 建立的概率评估指数:T小时周期突变强度和频率.
- 开发了间歇性元素的二维联合概率分布.
主要成果:
- 在光伏间歇性领域引入了回报期和回报水平概念.
- 启用数据支持,以确定储能能力,持续时间和项目时间表.
- 证明了一种与小样本大小和工程应用相兼容的方法.
结论:
- 提出的基于GEV的方法有效评估光伏功率间歇性,即使数据有限.
- 概率指数和联合分发增强了对电网运营的风险评估.
- 这种方法支持信息化决策,用于整合分布式光伏,并确保电力系统的稳定性.
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