在深度不确定性下的强有力的渔业管理战略
Jan Conradt1, Steffen Funk2, Camilla Sguotti2,3
1Institute of Marine Ecosystem and Fishery Science, Universität Hamburg, Große Elbstraße 133, 22767, Hamburg, Germany. jan.conradt@uni-hamburg.de.
Scientific reports
|July 23, 2024
概括
气候变化威胁着渔业. 强有力的决策 (RDM) 表明,对于北海鱼来说,没有单一的战略是完全可靠的,需要进行风险评估,平衡保护和利能力.
科学领域:
- 海洋生物学 海洋生物学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 渔业管理 渔业管理 渔业管理
背景情况:
- 全球渔业面临着前所未有的气候变化影响.
- 传统的管理依赖于机械的理解,经常受到招聘不确定性的限制.
- 深度不确定性下决策 (DMDU) 提供了适应性管理的替代框架.
研究的目的:
- 应用强大的决策 (RDM) 来评估北海鱼渔业在气候变化下的可持续性.
- 确定能够应对库存动态和气候预测的深度不确定性的管理策略.
- 评估北海鱼的保护和经济可行性之间的权衡.
主要方法:
- 利用RDM,一个DMDU框架,来分析管理策略.
- 在40,000种利用,排放场景和库存招募参数组合中预测北海鱼种群动态.
- 评估不同管理策略对各种不确定期货的稳定性.
主要成果:
- 模型的不确定性和利用水平显著影响预测结果.
- 没有单一的管理策略可以保证应对气候变化和模型参数化不确定性的完整稳定性.
- 保护和利能力都受到深度不确定性的影响.
结论:
- 为了适应气候变化的渔业管理,需要转向风险评估的范式.
- RDM强调了适应性策略的必要性,这些策略在深度不确定性下考虑了权衡.
- 未来的北海鱼渔业管理需要在气候不确定性中平衡生态可持续性与经济可行性.
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