评估避免怀孕的愿望趋势:一个警告说明
Studies in family planning
|July 24, 2024
概括
了解生育偏好是生殖健康的关键. 这项研究揭示了"对避孕的需求"措施夸大了趋势,显示实际的避孕变化主要来自于更好地利用现有的生育欲望.
科学领域:
- 生殖健康 生殖健康
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 社会学 社会学 社会学
背景情况:
- 避免怀孕的愿望是性和生殖健康的关键指标.
- 这种愿望的现有衡量标准,如未来的生育偏好和对避孕措施的需求构造,产生不同的历史趋势评估.
- 这些措施的差异影响了对避孕药使用变化的理解.
研究的目的:
- 批判性地评估两种避免怀孕的愿望指标:未来的生育偏好和对避孕的需求构造.
- 识别和纠正对避孕措施需求的偏见,特别是"反向因果关系".
- 准确评估历史避孕方法变化的驱动因素.
主要方法:
- 使用前生育偏好和对避孕需求构造的历史趋势的比较分析.
- 实证调查,以证明如何对避孕的需求构造受避孕的流行影响.
- 避孕措施变化的分解分析,首先与扭曲的测量,然后纠正"反向因果关系".
主要成果:
- 对避孕措施的需求构造大大夸大了由于"反向因果关系"的原因,避免怀孕的愿望的历史趋势大约为25%.
- 避孕措施的变化主要是由现有的生育偏好更全面地实施的,而不是偏好本身的变化.
- 历史上的生育偏好显示出惊人的小变化,部分原因是转向更低的生育平价.
结论:
- 目前所提出的避孕需求构造,提供了对避免怀孕的愿望历史趋势的扭曲观点.
- 准确的评估表明,增加的避孕使用主要是由于更好地遵守既定的生育意图.
- 平价组合向较低平价的转变有助于历史生育偏好的稳定性.
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