65%的覆盖率是洛斯高原的可持续植被门
Yi-Ping Chen1, Kai-Bo Wang1, Bo-Jie Fu2
1State Key Laboratory of Loess Science, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 700061, Xi'an, China.
Environmental science and ecotechnology
|July 24, 2024
概括
中国洛斯高原的植被覆盖面正在接近其生态值. 进一步增加生态系统崩的风险,需要可持续的管理策略来长期保持生态健康.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候变化科学 气候变化科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 中国的洛斯高原 (LP) 是一个广的干旱和半干旱地区,面临着严重的土壤侵蚀,对黄河流域的可持续发展至关重要.
- 了解气候变化下的植被动态和生态值对于这个脆弱的地区至关重要,该地区的变暖率比中国平均水平高出30%.
- 历史上的植被覆盖率波动,达到约53%,在最近几十年由于环境改善而增加到~65%.
研究的目的:
- 调查洛斯高原的植被变化,以应对气候变化.
- 确定该地区的植被覆盖的可持续值水平.
- 在各种排放场景下预测未来的植被覆盖面,并评估相关的生态风险.
主要方法:
- 对历史温度数据的分析显示,在LP上,每十年的变暖速度为0.27°C.
- 利用物种分布模型 (SDM) 预测低,中,高排放场景下的2030年代,2050年代和2070年代的植被覆盖变化.
- 整合历史记录与SDM预测,以估计植被覆盖面的生态值.
主要成果:
- 在低,中,高排放场景下,预计的平均植被覆盖率分别为64.67%,62.70%和61.47%.
- 据估计,LP的植被覆盖的可持续值在53%至65%之间.
- 目前的植被覆盖面 (约65%) 已经达到这一值的上限,这表明随着进一步的变暖而增加的风险.
结论:
- 如果植被覆盖超过确定值,洛斯高原的生态系统面临着崩的高风险,特别是随着全球气温的持续上升.
- 紧急实施可持续战略,包括停止进一步的植被扩张和优化现有植被结构至关重要.
- 这些措施对于提高洛斯高原和更广泛的黄河流域生态可持续性至关重要.
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