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使用气候包裹和地球系统模型模拟来评估气候变化诱导的森林脆弱性
Leam Martes1, Peter Pfleiderer2,3, Michael Köhl4
1Institute for Wood Science - World Forestry, Universität Hamburg, Leuschnerstraße 91, 21029, Hamburg, Germany. leam.mykel.martes@uni-hamburg.de.
Scientific reports
|July 24, 2024
概括
未来的气候变化对欧洲森林,特别是针叶树种类构成风险. 考虑气候极端,而不仅仅是平均值,揭示了对森林死亡和适应战略的更大威胁.
科学领域:
- 林业科学 林业科学
- 气候变化影响研究 气候变化影响研究
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
背景情况:
- 森林生态系统面临着不断变化的气候条件造成的重大威胁,包括干旱,疾病和虫害,导致森林普遍死亡.
- 中欧的商业重要针叶树种特别容易受到这些气候引起的压力,导致经济和生态的重大损失.
研究的目的:
- 在未来的气候场景中,使用气候覆超值 (CEE) 估计树木物种的风险.
- 评估极端气候对森林脆弱性和适应选择的影响与年度平均值对比.
主要方法:
- 利用了当前物种存在缺席数据和历史气候信息.
- 综合了来自各种地球系统模型的未来气候场景.
- 应用气候信封超值 (CEE) 分析以量化物种风险.
主要成果:
- 未来的气候场景预测更干燥和更温暖的条件,表明有显著的CEEs,特别是对于松树.
- 年度气候平均值掩盖了气候极端的影响,导致风险被低估.
- 气候极端因素的纳入表明,在所有研究的树种中,CEEs的增加更为广泛.
结论:
- 极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端
- 在考虑气候极端事件时,需要对森林风险和适应策略进行修订评估.
- 了解极端气候对于有效的森林管理和气候变化下的森林保护至关重要.
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