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过去一个世纪的降水变量的人为放大
Wenxia Zhang1, Tianjun Zhou1,2, Peili Wu3
1State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
概括
全球变暖增加了降水变化,导致更极端的潮湿和干燥条件. 这种增强的降水变化影响了气候预测和社会适应策略.
科学领域:
- 气候科学
- 大气科学
- 环境科学
背景情况:
- 全球气温上升导致大气湿度增加,加剧了极端降水事件.
- 虽然理论上预计降水变异性增加,但观察证据有限.
- 人为变暖是观察到的气候模式变化的关键驱动因素.
研究的目的:
- 确认和量化全球降水变化增加的观测证据.
- 调查放大降水变量的时间尺度和地理分布.
- 确定观察到的降水变量的主要驱动因素.
主要方法:
- 分析过去一个世纪的全球降水数据.
- 统计评估不同时间尺度 (每日到季内) 的降水变化趋势.
- 将变化归因于人为变暖和相关的热力学和动态因素.
主要成果:
- 在过去一个世纪,全球超过75%的土地上降水变化显著增加.
- 每天降水的变化率显示全球每十年增加1.2%.
- 在包括欧洲,澳大利亚和北美东部在内的地区,扩大变异性尤为明显.
结论:
- 人类产生的累积变暖被证实是全球降水变化增加的原因.
- 由大气加湿驱动的热力学是主要的机制,由循环变化调节.
- 扩大降水变化对气候预测,社会弹性和生态系统适应提出了重大挑战.
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