分析跨性别和年龄组的重犯驾驶员的致命事故模式:基于危险的持续时间方法
Richard Dzinyela1, Emmanuel Kofi Adanu2, Hardik Gupta1
1Zachary Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843-3136, USA.
Accident; analysis and prevention
|July 25, 2024
概括
卷入致命车祸的重犯司机主要是男性,车祸之间的时间较短,与之前的违法行为 (如DUI和超速) 有关. 驾驶员的年龄和性别显著影响碰撞风险因素.
科学领域:
- 高速公路安全公路安全.
- 交通事故分析 交通事故分析
- 司机行为研究 司机行为研究
背景情况:
- 识别影响重复犯罪司机的因素对于公路安全至关重要.
- 再犯司机是那些反复涉及交通违规或非致命事故的人.
- 了解崩事件持续时间有助于制定预防策略.
研究的目的:
- 分析先前的驾驶违规行为与随后致命事故发生的时间之间的关系.
- 调查驾驶员年龄和性别对事故持续时间的影响.
- 识别重复犯罪司机的特征,以告知安全干预.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自美国的五年 (2015-2019) 历史致命事故数据集.
- 分析了15956起涉及重犯司机的致命事故.
- 采用基于危险的持续时间模型来评估与碰撞事件间隔相关的因素.
主要成果:
- 初步分析显示,男性约占致命撞车事故中重犯司机的75%左右.
- 一次非致命事故和一次致命事故之间的平均持续时间约为1.5年.
- 诸如先前的车祸,交通违法行为 (驾驶,超速) 和其他因素对车祸的持续时间产生了重大影响,因年龄和性别而异.
结论:
- 以前的DUI,执照暂停和超速违规行为与碰撞之间的时间更短有关.
- 驾驶员的年龄影响了持续时间,对于先前发生过一次撞车的老年驾驶员来说,间隔较长,对于先前发生过多次撞车的驾驶员来说,间隔较短.
- 致命事故发生时的酒精/毒品使用显示出基于驾驶员年龄和性别的不同影响,这表明需要有针对性的干预措施.
相关概念视频
Hazard Rate
99
The hazard rate, also known as the hazard function or failure rate, is a statistical measure used to describe the instantaneous rate at which an event occurs, given that the event has not yet happened. From a probabilistic perspective, it represents the likelihood that a subject will experience the event in a very small time interval, conditional on surviving up to the beginning of that interval. In terms of frequency, the hazard rate can be viewed as the ratio of the number of events to the...
99
Determination of Expected Frequency
2.2K
Suppose one wants to test independence between the two variables of a contingency table. The values in the table constitute the observed frequencies of the dataset. But how does one determine the expected frequency of the dataset? One of the important assumptions is that the two variables are independent, which means the variables do not influence each other. For independent variables, the statistical probability of any event involving both variables is calculated by multiplying the individual...
2.2K
Hypothesis Test for Test of Independence
3.6K
The test of independence is a chi-square-based test used to determine whether two variables or factors are independent or dependent. This hypothesis test is used to examine the independence of the variables. One can construct two qualitative survey questions or experiments based on the variables in a contingency table. The goal is to see if the two variables are unrelated (independent) or related (dependent). The null and alternative hypotheses for this test are:
H0: The two variables (factors)...
H0: The two variables (factors)...
3.6K
Hazard Ratio
108
The hazard ratio (HR) is a widely used measure in clinical trials to compare the risk of events, such as death or disease recurrence, between two groups over time. It reflects the ratio of hazard rates—the instantaneous risk of the event occurring—between a treatment group and a control group. This measure provides valuable insights into the relative effectiveness of a treatment by assessing how the risk of an event differs between the two groups.
For example, in a clinical trial...
For example, in a clinical trial...
108
Comparing the Survival Analysis of Two or More Groups
170
Survival analysis is a cornerstone of medical research, used to evaluate the time until an event of interest occurs, such as death, disease recurrence, or recovery. Unlike standard statistical methods, survival analysis is particularly adept at handling censored data—instances where the event has not occurred for some participants by the end of the study or remains unobserved. To address these unique challenges, specialized techniques like the Kaplan-Meier estimator, log-rank test, and...
170
Introduction To Survival Analysis
203
Survival analysis is a statistical method used to study time-to-event data, where the "event" might represent outcomes like death, disease relapse, system failure, or recovery. A unique feature of survival data is censoring, which occurs when the event of interest has not been observed for some individuals during the study period. This requires specialized techniques to handle incomplete data effectively.
The primary goal of survival analysis is to estimate survival time—the time...
The primary goal of survival analysis is to estimate survival time—the time...
203


