在气候变化下的中国Phenacoccus manihoti的分布模式分析基于Biomod2模型
Yumeng Huang1, Tong Li1, Weijia Chen2
1Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Management for Plant Quarantine Pests, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, College of Plant Protection, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China.
Biology
|July 26, 2024
概括
气候变化正在扩大中国大麻虫 (Phenacoccus manihoti) 的潜在息地. 这种侵袭性害虫害虫是侵入性的.
科学领域:
- 农业昆虫学 农业昆虫学
- 气候变化 生态学 生态学
- 侵袭性物种管理 侵袭性物种管理
背景情况:
- 全球气候变化促进了入侵性植物害虫的传播.
- 麻豆虫 (Phenacoccus manihoti) 是全球麻豆生产和粮食安全的重大威胁.
- 中国靠近受影响地区和贸易,需要了解这种害虫的潜在定位.
研究的目的:
- 预测在各种气候场景下,麻虫在中国的潜在分布和动态生态利基.
- 确定影响害虫分布的关键环境变量.
- 为了告知早期预警系统和控制策略的麻瓜虫入侵.
主要方法:
- 使用Biomod2包进行物种分布建模.
- 对历史和未来气候场景的分析 (SSP1-2.6,SSP5-8.5).
- 确定关键的环境变量 (生物4,生物8,生物12,生物18,生物19).
主要成果:
- 潜在的息地主要位于中国南部,预计将向北转移,并在未来气候变化下略有扩张.
- 关键的环境驱动因素包括温度和降水变量.
- 据预测,被入侵地区的生态是多样化和不相似的.
结论:
- 麻虫对中国构成未来的风险,适合息地不断扩大.
- 气候变化将影响害虫的分布和潜在传播.
- 预测模型对于积极的害虫管理和生物安全至关重要.
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