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在价格限制约束下尾部风险动态:一种被审查的自回归条件Fréchet模型
1Department of Statistics and Finance, School of Management, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China.
Entropy (Basel, Switzerland)
|July 26, 2024
概括
忽视金融市场的价格限制低估了尾部风险. 扩大限额可以减少极端事件,但会增加整体尾部风险,影响投资者决策和风险管理策略.
科学领域:
- 量化金融 量化金融
- 金融计量经济学 金融计量经济学
- 风险管理 风险管理
背景情况:
- 金融市场表现出诸如重尾,波动性聚类和极端事件聚类等特征.
- 股票市场的价格限制引入了审查,影响了对金融风险的准确评估.
- 现有的模型可能无法充分捕捉价格约束下随时间变化的尾部风险动态.
研究的目的:
- 为分析价格受限市场的尾部风险动态提出一种新的受审查的自回归条件Fréchet (CAcF) 模型.
- 调查价格限制和不同风险偏好对尾部风险的影响.
- 为在受限制的市场环境中提供一个强大的金融风险管理工具.
主要方法:
- 开发一个经过审查的自回归条件Fréchet (CAcF) 模型,具有灵活的参数演变.
- 应用CAcF模型来分析尾部风险动态,使用风险值 (EVaR) 作为衡量标准.
- 使用来自中国台湾股票市场的数据进行实证分析.
主要成果:
- 忽视审查的价格限制导致严重低估尾部风险.
- 价格上限的扩大减少了下限事件,但增加了整体尾部风险.
- 具有不同风险偏好的投资者对极端事件的反应相反.
结论:
- 拟议的CAcF模型有效地解释和预测价格受限股票市场的时间变化的尾巴行为.
- 精确建模审查的价格限制对于可靠的尾部风险评估至关重要.
- 这些发现为监管市场的金融风险管理策略提供了宝贵的见解.
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