基于非添加性测量和前景理论的三方决策方法的研究及其在航空设备风险分析中的应用
Ruicong Xia1, Sirong Tong1, Qiang Wang1
1Equipment Management and Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Engineering School, Air Force Engineering University, Xi'an 710051, China.
Entropy (Basel, Switzerland)
|July 26, 2024
概括
本研究引入了一种新的三向决策 (3WD) 方法,将前景理论和非添加措施整合起来,以分析来自多个信息来源的复杂风险. 该方法提高了航空设备的风险评估,改善了安全管理决策.
科学领域:
- 决策科学 决策科学
- 风险分析 风险分析
- 人工智能的人工智能
背景情况:
- 由于非独立的属性和复杂的环境,风险分析具有挑战性.
- 现有的模型在多个来源和不完整的风险信息方面扎.
研究的目的:
- 为风险分析提出一种新的三向决策 (3WD) 方法.
- 通过结合前景理论和非添加措施来加强风险评估.
- 应对多来源和不完整的风险信息系统的挑战.
主要方法:
- 开发了一种新的三向决策 (3WD) 模型.
- 集成的前景理论来完善3WD模型的损失函数.
- 结合非添加和概率测量,考虑专家知识和客观数据.
主要成果:
- 拟议的3WD方法应用于真实世界的航空设备风险评估.
- 模拟分析验证了该方法的可用性和有效性.
- 该方法成功评估和排名了设备结构中的关键风险因素.
结论:
- 新的3WD方法有效地处理复杂的风险评估与不完整的信息.
- 该方法为航空安全管理决策提供了可靠的基础.
- 这种方法为使用综合理论的决策提供了新的视角.
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