外源变量驱动的深度学习模型用于改善印度TOP作物的价格预测
G H Harish Nayak1,2,3, Md Wasi Alam1, K N Singh1
1ICAR-Indian Agricultural Statistics Research Institute, New Delhi, 110012, India.
Scientific reports
|July 26, 2024
概括
深度学习模型,特别是NBEATSX和TransformerX,通过结合天气数据,显著改善了印度农产品价格预测. 这些先进的模型优于传统的统计和机器学习方法,提高了关键作物的预测准确度.
科学领域:
- 农业经济学 农业经济学
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
- 时间序列预测时间序列预测
背景情况:
- 准确的农产品价格预测对印度经济至关重要.
- 传统模型面临着假设和特征提取的局限性.
- 现有的机器学习 (ML) 和深度学习 (DL) 方法往往忽视了关键的外部因素.
研究的目的:
- 评估印度农业价格预测的先进深度学习模型 (NBEATSX,TransformerX).
- 研究将外源变量,特别是天气数据纳入DL模型的影响.
- 将DL模型的性能与传统的统计和ML方法进行比较.
主要方法:
- 利用来自印度主要市场的番茄,洋和土豆 (TOP) 的价格数据.
- 整合相应的天气数据 (降水,温度) 作为外部变量.
- 将NBEATSX和TransformerX与ARIMAX,MLR,ANN,SVR,RFR和XGBoost进行比较,使用RMSE,MAE,sMAPE,MASE和QL指标评估性能.
主要成果:
- 深度学习模型NBEATSX和TransformerX表现出卓越的性能.
- 这些DL模型,特别是当加上天气数据时,始终优于统计和ML模型.
- NBEATSX和TransformerX的平均RMSE分别为110.33和135.33,其他错误指标也显示出显著的改善.
结论:
- 先进的深度学习模型NBEATSX和TransformerX在印度农产品价格预测方面非常有效.
- 纳入外源变量,如天气数据显著提高了DL模型的预测能力.
- 这项研究强调了DL在更准确,更可靠的农产品价格预测方面的潜力,解决了一个关键的研究缺口.
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