根据粮食生产水平,评估中国北部的粮食安全
1School of Geography and Tourism, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an 710119, China.
Foods (Basel, Switzerland)
|July 27, 2024
概括
人类活动,而不是气候,主要驱动中国北方.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 食品安全研究 食品安全研究
背景情况:
- 中国北部在县级粮食生产和粮食安全方面面临着复杂的挑战.
- 了解气候和人类活动的相互作用对于区域粮食稳定至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析2000年至2020年中国北方粮食生产的时空特征.
- 确定影响谷物生产的关键因素,区分气候和人类活动指标.
- 根据谷物生产能力和供需动态评估区域粮食安全.
主要方法:
- 使用的收益率波动系数和空间计量经济学建模.
- 应用随机森林方法和因子分析来确定因子.
- 使用谷物生产能力指标评估粮食安全.
主要成果:
- 中国北部的粮食生产呈现波动性增长,主要地区位于东部和南部,并且存在显著的时空变化.
- 人类活动被发现是对谷物生产变化的主要影响,超过了气候因素.
- 粮食短缺区已经减少和分散,而多余粮食区已经扩大,尽管某些地区的低产能构成粮食安全风险.
结论:
- 中国北部的粮食生产模式主要是由人类活动塑造的.
- 尽管粮食多余区的总体扩张,但由于生产能力的不同,局部粮食安全风险仍然存在.
- 需要有针对性的战略来解决粮食安全的脆弱性,特别是在产能较低的地区.
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