最佳时机经常优于预防性麻疹的更高覆盖率 补充免疫运动
Katherine A Rosenfeld1, Kurt Frey1, Kevin A McCarthy1
1Institute for Disease Modeling, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, WA 98109, USA.
Vaccines
|July 27, 2024
概括
麻疹补充免疫活动 (SIAs) 在最佳时间安排的情况下,即使覆盖率较低,也可以更有效. 优先考虑及时的麻疹运动,而不是仅仅是高覆盖率,可以更有效地预防疫情爆发.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 疫苗接种计划 疫苗接种计划
背景情况:
- 麻疹对全球儿童健康构成重大威胁,许多国家的常规免疫系统未能防止大规模爆发.
- 麻疹补充免疫活动 (SIA) 对于控制疾病至关重要,但它们的有效性仍有争议.
- 目前的标准强调在SIA中实现高覆盖率 (≥95%),这可能会推迟活动实施.
研究的目的:
- 评估运动及时性与麻疹SIAs覆盖率之间的权衡.
- 确定针对麻疹的最佳策略 SIA时间,特别是在常规免疫接种较弱的地区.
- 在评估SIA绩效时评估覆盖范围指标的可靠性.
主要方法:
- 模拟不同SIA时间和覆盖场景对麻疹爆发风险的影响.
- 比较及时,较低覆盖率的SIA与延迟,高覆盖率的SIA的业绩.
- 分析覆盖率和疫情预防之间的关系.
主要成果:
- 在麻疹SIA中实现的及时性和覆盖率之间存在显著的权衡.
- 最佳的SIA时机,即使在覆盖率低至50%,也可以超过延迟的更高覆盖率 (例如95%) 的运动.
- 仅仅依靠测量覆盖范围可能是SIA有效性的误导性指标.
结论:
- 重新考虑麻疹的程序性标准是必要的,以优先考虑及时实施.
- 在某些情况下,较低覆盖率,及时的运动在预防麻疹爆发方面可能比延迟,高覆盖率的运动更有效.
- 在全面评估SIA成功时,应同时考虑覆盖范围指标和及时性.
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