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如何开发,验证和更新使用多项逻辑回归的临床预测模型
Celina K Gehringer1, Glen P Martin2, Ben Van Calster3
1Centre for Epidemiology Versus Arthritis, Centre for Musculoskeletal Research, Division of Musculoskeletal and Dermatological Sciences, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK; Centre for Biostatistics, Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK.
多类预测模型 (MPM) 为具有多个类别的结果提供了有价值的临床见解. 本指南详细介绍了使用多项逻辑回归来开发,验证和更新这些模型,以获得更好的医疗预测.
科学领域:
- 临床预测建模临床预测建模
- 多项式逻辑回归的多项式回归
- 健康研究成果研究结果
背景情况:
- 多类预测模型 (MPM) 在医疗保健中未得到充分利用,尽管它们对超过两个类别的结果有用.
- 与二进制结果模型相比,方法复杂性可能导致MPM的应用有限.
- 关于预测模型研究的现有指导可用于多类结果的补充.
研究的目的:
- 为开发,验证和更新多类预测模型 (MPM) 提供全面指南.
- 为了说明多项逻辑回归对名义和顺序多类结果的应用.
- 鼓励在临床环境中使用MPM来预测复杂的健康结果.
主要方法:
- 基于最近的方法论文献的指导.
- 使用经过验证的MPM用于类风湿性关节炎治疗结果的插图.
- 专注于结果定义,变量选择,模型开发和评估.
主要成果:
- 该指南涵盖了结果定义,变量选择,模型开发和评估 (性能,验证,重新校准).
- 概述了评估和解释MPM预测性能的方法.
- 提供R代码以方便模型实现.
结论:
- 建议MPM用于预测多类结果的临床环境.
- 未来的研究应该解决MPM特定的变量选择和外部验证样本大小标准.
- 增加MPM的应用可以增强复杂的健康状况的临床决策.
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