德尔菲方法在药物预测中的适用性
Tomi Lintonen1, Karoliina Karjalainen2, Sanna Rönkä2
1Finnish Foundation for Alcohol Studies, PO Box 30, Helsinki, FI-00271, Finland. tomi.lintonen@alkoholitutkimussaatio.fi.
Substance abuse treatment, prevention, and policy
|July 27, 2024
概括
专家对芬兰药物使用趋势的预测在很大程度上是准确的,长达十年,正确预测了药物使用和接受度的增加. 然而,预测特定药物受欢迎程度的变化,如新的精神活性物质,证明更具挑战性.
科学领域:
- 毒品政策和公共卫生研究.
- 对物质使用的前性研究和趋势分析.
背景情况:
- 专家对芬兰与毒品相关的主题的预测是在2009-2011年间进行的.
- 该研究评估了2020年这些前预测的准确性.
研究的目的:
- 评估有关芬兰药物使用和药物政策的专家预测的准确性.
- 确定长期 (10年) 毒品相关趋势预测的可靠性.
主要方法:
- 利用多个数据源,包括统计,调查,官方注册和废水分析.
- 将2009-2011年Delphi研究中的专家预测与2020年的数据进行了比较.
主要成果:
- 专家准确地预测了毒品使用的增加和更广泛的社会认可,尽管后者是缓慢的.
- 报告指出,布普伦诺芬滥用率上升,而新合成药物使用率并没有明显增加.
- 药品价格保持稳定;立法没有变化,但执法变得更加宽容,与专家的预测保持一致.
结论:
- 预测现有的趋势 (例如,增加药物使用) 比预测特定药物受欢迎程度的变化 (例如,NPS) 更可靠.
- 预见性研究可以在十年前就准确地了解与毒品有关的问题.
- 专家的分歧凸显了未来的不确定性;有组织犯罪在毒品贸易中的作用是可以预测的,但无法预防的.
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