霍乱疾病的动态与疫苗接种控制使用延迟微分方程.
Jaskirat Pal Singh1, Sachin Kumar2, Ali Akgül3,4
1Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Central University of Punjab, Bathinda, 151401, India.
Scientific reports
|July 29, 2024
概括
这项研究引入了分数顺序延迟差异模型,以打击日益增加的霍乱病例,表明水化和疫苗接种是有效的公共卫生干预措施,防止疾病传播.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学生物学 数学生物学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- COVID-19大流行扰乱了全球卫生倡议,导致由于疫苗接种缺口,发展中国家的霍乱发病率增加.
- 缺乏及时干预加剧了霍乱的爆发,特别是在资源有限的环境中.
研究的目的:
- 开发和分析一种新的分数顺序延迟霍乱传播差异模型.
- 以数学方法评估公共卫生干预措施的有效性,包括对水的化和疫苗接种,以控制霍乱.
主要方法:
- 制定了一个分数顺序延迟微分方程模型,其中包含两个不同的延迟 (潜伏期和消毒剂应用延迟).
- 对基本繁殖数进行了敏感性分析,以评估控制措施的有效性.
- 进行了平衡点的稳定性分析和数值模拟.
主要成果:
- 提供了数学证据,证明水消毒和疫苗接种在预防霍乱传播方面的有效性.
- 该研究确定了稳定性切换曲线.
- 数字模拟说明了延迟对疾病动态的影响以及分数顺序对振荡的影响.
结论:
- 拟议的模型证实,将水化和疫苗接种策略结合起来,对于减轻霍乱爆发至关重要.
- 延迟参数显著影响疾病动态,强调及时干预的重要性.
- 分数计算为模拟复杂的流行病学现象提供了有价值的框架.
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