智力能力和性犯罪复发风险评估:比较美国监狱囚犯的预测准确性 样本 样本 样本 样本 样本
Perry A Callahan1, Elizabeth L Jeglic2, Cynthia Calkins2
1Fordham University, New York, NY, USA.
Sexual abuse : a journal of research and treatment
|July 30, 2024
概括
缺乏对有智力障碍 (ID) 和边缘智力功能 (BIF) 的监禁人员的风险评估工具. 与Static-99/Static-99R不同的是,MnSOST-R显示了该组的预测有效性,强调了需要量身定制的风险评估策略.
科学领域:
- 法医心理学 法医心理学
- 智力障碍研究 智力障碍研究
- 刑事司法 刑事司法 刑事司法
背景情况:
- 智力障碍 (ID) 和边缘智力功能 (BIF) 的人在被监禁的性犯罪人口中占比不大.
- 对于这一人口群体的有效风险评估工具,存在一个重要的研究差距,特别是在美国的惩教环境中.
- 不准确的风险评估可能会导致不利的结果,如拒绝保释,更严厉的判决或民事监禁.
研究的目的:
- 评估Static-99,Static-99R和MnSOST-R风险评估仪器对有或没有ID/BIF的被监禁个体的预测有效性.
- 为了解决美国监禁人员ID/BIF风险评估研究不足的问题.
主要方法:
- 分析了459名有ID/BIF的囚犯和459名没有ID/BIF的匹配对照的档案记录.
- 1996年至2007年期间,参与者从新泽西州立监狱获释,平均随访时间为5.7年.
- 我们比较了Static-99,Static-99R (历史预测器) 和MnSOST-R (包括动态子级) 的预测准确度.
主要成果:
- 静态99和静态99R在没有ID/BIF的个人中表现出良好的预测有效性.
- 只有MnSOST-R为ID/BIF组产生了显著的曲线下面面积 (AUC) 值,表明更好的预测准确度.
- 被归类为高风险的ID/BIF组的再监禁率很低 (0%-8%),与整体重犯基准率 (4%) 相比.
结论:
- 目前的风险评估工具可能对被监禁的ID/BIF个体没有最佳的效果.
- MnSOST-R对评估这一群体的风险具有前景,但需要进一步研究.
- 需要进行额外的调查,以确定和验证与ID/BIF.个人中复发相关的特定风险因素.
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