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深度学习模型在预测流动模式中的相互比较:来自CMIP6的洞察力
Hamid Anwar1, Afed Ullah Khan2, Basir Ullah1
1Department of Civil Engineering, University of Engineering and Technology, Peshawar, 25000, Pakistan.
Scientific reports
|July 30, 2024
概括
时间滞后的人工神经网络 (TLANN) 准确预测了斯瓦特河流域的流量. 这种深度学习模型为未来的气候场景提供可靠的水资源管理见解.
科学领域:
- 水文和水资源管理 水文和水资源管理
- 气候变化影响评估 气候变化影响评估
- 环境科学中的人工智能
背景情况:
- 精确的流量预测对于水资源管理至关重要,尤其是在不断变化的气候条件下.
- 深度学习模型为水文预测提供了先进的功能.
- 了解不同共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 下的未来流量变化对于适应战略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 使用四种深度学习模型预测斯瓦特河流域的每日流量.
- 评估和比较前人工神经网络 (FFANN),季节性人工神经网络 (SANN),时间滞后人工神经网络 (TLANN) 和长短期记忆 (LSTM) 的性能.
- 在SSP245和SSP585气候场景下预测未来的流量.
主要方法:
- 四个深度学习模型 (FFANN,SANN,TLANN,LSTM) 用于流量预测.
- 使用泰勒图,随机森林和梯度提升进行多模型合并 (MME) 计算,选择了通用循环模型 (GCM).
- 妥协编程确定了最大温度 (Tmax),最小温度 (Tmin) 和降水的最佳MME;使用观测数据训练和测试模型.
主要成果:
- 时间滞后人工神经网络 (TLANN) 在训练和测试阶段表现出卓越的性能,具有最低的RMSE,MSE,MAE和最高的R2.
- 统计绩效指标证实了TLANN在捕捉流动动态方面的有效性.
- 基于SSP245和SSP585场景的MME,使用TLANN生成了未来流量预测.
结论:
- TLANN是一种高效的深度学习模型,用于在斯瓦特河流域每日流量预测.
- 该研究提供了有关不同气候情景下的潜在未来流量变化的有价值的见解.
- 调查结果支持该地区水资源项目的知情规划,管理和政策制定.
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