预测埃塞俄比亚提格雷的结核病发病率及其趋势:一种现实反事实建模方法
Gebremedhin Berhe Gebregergs1, Gebretsadik Berhe1, Kibrom Gebreslasie Gebrehiwot2
1Department of Epidemiology, College of Health Sciences, Mekelle University, Mekelle, Ethiopia.
Infection and drug resistance
|July 31, 2024
概括
提格雷战争导致结核病发病率增加了五倍,扭转了长达20年的下降. 紧急干预对于预防结核病,检测和治疗受影响人群至关重要.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学建模的数学建模
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 埃塞俄比亚的提格雷地区从2020年到2022年经历了一场内战.
- 冲突导致卫生系统受损,结核病例增加.
- 以前的趋势显示,战前结核病发病率持续下降.
研究的目的:
- 预测在内战期间和之后在提格雷的结核病发病率.
- 为了将预测的结核病趋势与没有战争的反事实情景进行比较.
- 量化战争对结核病发病率的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用SEIRD数学模型预测从2020年到2025年的结核病发病率.
- 采用自回归集成移动平均 (ARIMA) 模型进行反事实趋势预测.
- 对ARIMA进行了滚动起源交叉验证,并对SEIRD模型进行了敏感性分析.
主要成果:
- 预计结核病发病率在没有战争的情况下会下降,但由于冲突而显著增加.
- 在2022年,SEIRD预测的发病率达到每10万人的965.5,比没有战争的情况增加了五倍.
- 2022年,每10万人中有800多例病例归因于战争;预计到2023年,战后的发病率将下降30%.
结论:
- 提格雷战争扭转了20年来控制结核病的进展.
- 冲突导致结核病例大幅增加,需要立即进行公共卫生干预.
- 针对结核病预防,诊断和治疗的有针对性的支持至关重要,特别是对于弱势群体.
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