潜在的COVID-19测试欺诈检测:比较传统和统计方法的试点研究的结果
Michael Bosnjak1,2, Stefan Dahm2, Ronny Kuhnert2
1Trier University, Department for Psychological Research Methods, Trier, Germany.
与传统方法相比,统计方法提供了更有效和系统的方法来检测COVID-19抗原/快速测试报告中的欺诈行为. 这些技术识别了额外的潜在欺诈性测试中心,提高了总体检测率.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 测试中心报告的操纵COVID-19抗原/快速测试数量存在担忧.
- 本研究评估了与传统方法相比的统计欺诈检测方法.
研究的目的:
- 为了比较统计方法与传统欺诈检测的有效性.
- 确定统计方法可以在多大程度上识别额外的潜在欺诈案件.
主要方法:
- 分析来自907个德国测试中心的计费数据 (2021年4月至2022年8月).
- 采用异常值检测,Poisson回归用于阳性率建模,以及Benford定律用于数字分析.
主要成果:
- 方法之间的积极一致性 (敏感性) 从8.6%到24.7%不等.
- 消极的同意 (特异性) 从91.3%到94.6%不等.
- 统计方法还发现了7.0%8.7%的潜在欺诈中心,组合方法可以进行最佳检测.
结论:
- 统计方法在识别欺诈性测试中心方面更加有效和系统.
- 建议对paradata进行映射,例如测试时间,用于未来的流行病准备.
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