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气候变化改变了实现海洋未来目标的社会生态权衡
Zeyu Zeng1, Vicky W Y Lam1, U Rashid Sumaila1
1Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.
Global change biology
|July 31, 2024
概括
气候变化影响海洋生态系统,影响渔业和生计. 有效的重建需要平衡生态和经济目标,但气候变化使这些权衡变得复杂,特别是在南中国海.
科学领域:
- 海洋生态海洋生态学
- 气候变化影响气候变化的影响.
- 渔业管理 渔业管理
背景情况:
- 气候变化对海洋生态系统产生级联影响,影响渔业,粮食安全和生计.
- 过度捕捞加剧了这些影响,使海洋社会生态系统的重建复杂化.
- 了解气候变化对共同利益和权衡的影响对于可持续的海洋未来至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估在南中国海 (NSCS) 北部和东中国海 (ECS) 生态系统中改善生态强度和经济效益的范围.
- 评估气候变化对生态系统重建途径的影响.
- 探索渔业管理中的生态和社会维度之间的共同利益和权衡.
主要方法:
- 数字优化程序用于定义帕雷托边界的生态和经济目标.
- 分析的重点是两个过度开发的海洋生态系统:NSCS (低度) 和ECS (中度).
- 建模气候变化对2050年渔业和生物多样性的预测影响.
主要成果:
- 在气候变化下,ECS生态系统可能在2050年增加经济效益,但生物多样性不确定性更高.
- 预计气候变化将减少NSCS生态系统的恢复潜力和经济效益.
- 气候变化对重建的对比影响甚至在邻近的生态系统中也观察到权衡.
结论:
- 有效的生态系统重建需要采用整体方法,考虑到气候变化,生物多样性和渔业相互作用.
- 管理策略必须考虑到不同区域和渔业部门对共同利益和权衡的不同气候变化影响.
- 整合气候-生物多样性-渔业联系是制定成功生态系统重建计划的关键.
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