负双项-林德利模型与时间依赖参数:在碰撞数据中考虑时间变化和过度零观测
Richard Dzinyela1, Mohammadali Shirazi2, Subasish Das3
1Zachary Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, 3136 TAMU, College Station, TX 77843-3136, United States.
Accident; analysis and prevention
|July 31, 2024
概括
这项研究引入了一种新的依赖时间的负二项式-林德利模型,以改进碰撞频率分析. 改进后的模型更好地处理过量零观测和碰撞数据的时间变化,从而实现更准确的预测.
科学领域:
- 运输工程 运输工程
- 统计建模 统计建模
- 交通安全 交通安全 交通安全
背景情况:
- 崩数据经常显示过多的零观测,挑战传统的负二项式 (NB) 模型.
- 现有的负二项式-林德利 (NBL) 和随机参数NBL模型解决了多余的零值,但可能无法完全捕捉时间变化.
- 随时间变化的因素,如交通量和天气,需要考虑时间分类和异质性的模型.
研究的目的:
- 引入负双项-林德利 (NBL) 模型的新变体,具有时间依赖参数.
- 解决现有的碰撞频率模型在超零观测和时间变化方面的局限性.
- 通过结合时间依赖系数和林德利参数来提高碰撞频率分析的准确性.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个新的NBL模型,其系数和林德利参数随时间变化而变化.
- 进行模拟研究以说明模型的推导和特征.
- 将拟议的模型应用于德克萨斯州农村动脉道路的实证撞车数据集,包括时间依赖的变量.
主要成果:
- 与NB,NBL和时间依赖的NB模型相比,时间依赖的NBL模型显示出更高的合适性.
- 更宽的肩膀和中位数存在与事故发生率的减少有关.
- 增加的速度变化,更宽的路面和更高的月平均每日流量 (月平均每日流量) 与事故频率的增加相关.
结论:
- 拟议的具有时间依赖参数的NBL模型通过考虑时间变化和多余的零值,显著改善了碰撞频率建模.
- 了解时间变化的因素和道路特征的影响对于有效的交通安全策略至关重要.
- 该研究强调了分类数据和先进的统计方法对于准确的事故分析的重要性.
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