量化未来极端气候指数:对西非可持续城市发展的影响,重点关注大阿克拉地区
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Updated: Jun 18, 2025

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Using Generative Art to Convey Past and Future Climate Transitions
Published on: March 31, 2023
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Ebenezer Kwadwo Siabi1,2, Edward Abingya Awafo3, Amos Tiereyangn Kabobah4,5
1Earth Observation Research and Innovation Center (EORIC), University of Energy and Natural Resources, P.O. Box 214, Sunyani, Ghana.
概括
气候变化加剧了西非大阿克拉地区的极端天气. 预计到2059年,更严重的干旱,洪水和热浪将影响到水,食品和能源系统.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 气象学 天气学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 全球的大都市,特别是西非的大都市,面临着极端气候变化的高度脆弱性.
- 大阿克拉地区是一个人口密集的地区,由于气候变化,它越来越容易受到洪水,热浪和干旱的影响.
研究的目的:
- 在各种共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 情景下,模拟西非的气候极端指数,重点关注大阿克拉地区.
- 预测干旱,降雨和热浪的未来趋势,以告知气候政策和可持续发展目标.
主要方法:
- 用于气候模拟的利用合模型相互比较项目6 (CMIP6) 模型.
- 分析了气候极端指数,包括连续干旱日 (CDD),R99pTOT,Rx5days和热浪指数,从1979年到2059年.
- 根据不同的SSP场景 (SSP245,SSP370,SSP585) 检查的趋势.
主要成果:
- 预计干旱状况将加剧,特别是在SSP585下,大阿克拉和西非的连续干旱日 (CDD) 将增加.
- 极端降水事件 (R99pTOT,Rx5days) 预计将在整个地区增加强度和持续时间,特别是在几内亚海岸.
- 预计热浪指数将上升,温暖的日子和夜晚更频繁,寒冷的日子和夜晚更少,特别是在阿克拉和特马等城市中心.
结论:
- 大阿克拉地区未来的极端气候对水,粮食和能源安全构成重大威胁,可能导致经常性洪水和干旱.
- 调查结果支持气候政策的制定,为"巴黎协定"的国家自主贡献 (NDCs),以及可持续发展目标11和13.
- 迫切的适应和减缓战略是必要的,以建立西非大城市在不断升级的气候风险面前的弹性.
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