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2013-2050年中国人口老龄化和地区不平等造成的臭氧死亡负担变化

Xiaokang Chen¹, Zhe Jiang¹, Yanan Shen¹

¹School of Earth and Space Sciences University of Science and Technology of China Hefei China.

|August 1, 2024

概括

人口老龄化将大大增加中国与臭氧有关的呼吸道死亡. 臭氧污染中的区域不平等

科学领域:

环境健康环境健康
人口统计学人口统计学
公共卫生公共卫生

背景情况:

空气污染,特别是臭氧 (O3),对健康构成重大风险.
人口老龄化和区域经济差异是影响健康结果的关键人口因素.
了解这些因素的相互作用对于公共卫生政策至关重要.

研究的目的:

从2013年到2050年,分析中国2013年至2050年的呼吸道疾病与臭氧相关的死亡负担的驱动因素.
量化人口老龄化和区域不平等对臭氧死亡率的影响.
预测未来的趋势,并为有针对性的医疗保健策略提供信息.

主要方法:

对臭氧死亡负担的驱动分析.
对人口老龄化和区域经济状况的预测建模.
估计因臭氧暴露而导致的呼吸道疾病死亡率.

主要成果:

人口老龄化预计将导致年度臭氧死亡负担大幅增加:56,000 (2013-2020),101,000-137,000 (2020-2030),和298,000-485,000 (2030-2050).
到2030年至2050年,因衰老引起的死亡率上升相当于2030年全国总的臭氧死亡负担.
臭氧对健康的影响分布不公平,不成比例地影响较不发达的地区,尽管预计到2050年这种不平等将会减少.

结论:

人口老龄化是中国未来臭氧相关死亡率的关键,低估的驱动因素.
解决臭氧暴露和健康影响的区域差异至关重要.
调查结果强调了适应性医疗保健规划的必要性,以管理老龄化人口中不断升级的臭氧污染负担.

关键词:

衰老的衰老衰老的衰老死亡负担是死亡负担.臭氧层中的臭氧.

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