在气候变化下,由昆虫载体介导的松病在中国的发生和潜在传播
Ruihe Gao1,2, Lei Liu1,2, Shiming Fan1,2
1College of Forestry, Shanxi Agricultural University, Jinzhong, China.
Pest management science
|August 1, 2024
概括
松病 (PWD) 在中国正在蔓延. 这项研究预测了其未来的分布及其昆虫载体的分布,有助于控制战略.
科学领域:
- 森林病理学 森林病理学
- 昆虫学 昆虫学是一门学科.
- 生态建模 生态建模
背景情况:
- 松病 (PWD) 是一种重要的森林害虫,对松树种类造成生态和经济损害.
- 在中国,PWD已经扩大到其历史范围之外,因此需要了解其传播.
- 评估昆虫载体介导的PWD发生对于确定传播途径和实施控制措施至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估Bursaphelenchus xylophilus (PWD病原体) 在中国的当前和未来的地理分布.
- 为了预测其主要昆虫载体的传播,Monochamus alternatus和M. saltuarius.
- 确定由这些载体介导的PWD的潜在扩散区域和传播途径.
主要方法:
- 利用一个优化的MaxEnt模型来预测适合B. xylophilus及其昆虫载体的息地.
- 根据环境变量分析了当前和未来的地理分布.
- 通过不同的载体组合介导的PWD的量化潜在分散区域.
主要成果:
- 预计适合B. xylophilus殖民的区域将扩大,特别是在中国西北部.
- 预计Monochamus alternatus和M. saltuarius将分别向西北和西南传播.
- 由载体介导的PWD潜在的扩散区域是相当大的,预计将增加,具有显著的度扩张.
结论:
- 这项研究提供了对中国昆虫载体介导的PWD扩散区域的首次调查.
- 结果为开发有效的PWD管理策略提供了理论和经验基础.
- 了解媒介传播对于控制PWD在中国至关重要.
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