大规模的社会系统中,由突发事件调节的近乎关键的动态
Peng Guo1,2, Yunhui Xu1,2, Shichun Guo1,2
1Department of Psychological and Cognitive Sciences, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China.
Chaos (Woodbury, N.Y.)
|August 1, 2024
概括
流行病等突发事件将消费者行为推向危急状态,提高系统的反应能力. 一些行为仍然强大,反映了底层系统的稳定性.
科学领域:
- 复杂系统科学 复杂系统科学
- 社会动力学 社会动力学
- 行为经济学是一种行为经济学.
背景情况:
- 了解个人行为如何聚合成大规模的社会动态至关重要.
- 突然的外部事件可以显著改变既定的社会模式和系统行为.
研究的目的:
- 为了研究不同类型的个体购买行为如何在应对突发事件时演变.
- 分析新冠肺炎疫情对消费动态和社会系统关键性的影响.
主要方法:
- 为了自然观测,利用了220万份购买订单的五年数据集.
- 应用重新规范化组方法来分析消费动态 (趋势,季节性,随机组件).
主要成果:
- 冠状病毒大流行推动了长期消费动态向一个近乎关键的地区.
- 短期动态显示出不同的反应:趋势和随机行为变得近乎关键,而季节性行为保持强.
- 在异构的社会系统中发现了准关键的宏观动态的出现.
结论:
- 准关键性增强了系统对突发事件的反应能力.
- 坚固的系统组件,如季节性行为,表明了潜在的稳定性.
- 调查结果提供了对社会系统弹性和适应机制的见解.
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