菌株变异和异常气候协同影响霍乱大流行
Xavier Rodó1,2, Menno Jan Bouma2, Miquel-Àngel Rodríguez-Arias3
1ICREA, Barcelona, Spain.
PLoS neglected tropical diseases
|August 1, 2024
概括
霍乱大流行是由病原体进化和气候变化驱动的. 了解这些联系,特别是厄尔尼诺南部振荡 (ENSO) 影响,对于预测气候变化的未来爆发至关重要.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 微生物进化 微生物进化
背景情况:
- 自1817年以来,霍乱流行病的起源和传播情况尚不清楚.
- 进化病原体变化是第七次大流行的假设,但不是以前的.
- 异常气候对霍乱菌株替代的影响尚未评估.
研究的目的:
- 在第六次霍乱大流行 (1899-1923年) 中调查气候和菌株变异的作用.
- 将第六次大流行与第七次 (El Tor) 和O139菌株的出现进行比较.
- 评估与历史菌株替代相关的气候异常,并预测未来的场景.
主要方法:
- 利用了英国印度气候和霍乱死亡的历史记录.
- 采用非线性时间序列分析来检查疫情同步和气候关联.
- 用多模型气候模拟来进行未来预测和异常评估.
主要成果:
- 第六次大流行显示,在1904-07年的厄尔尼诺现象期间,孟加拉邦出现了同步爆发.
- 异常的天气条件与最近的流行病扩张期间与厄尔尼诺南部振荡 (ENSO) 相关的天气条件相似.
- 1904年至1905年的极端降雨异常处于模拟变化的99百分位.
结论:
- 病原体的进化和气候条件在霍乱的出现和传播中相互作用.
- 全球变暖引起的气候变化和极端因素为新出现的病原体创造了机会.
- 历史分析揭示了气候在霍乱大流行中的作用,这对未来疾病的出现有影响.
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