内在能力下降预测中国老年人的长期死亡率:北京老龄化纵向研究
Yiming Pan1, Xiaxia Li1, Li Zhang1
1Department of Geriatrics, Xuanwu Hospital, Capital Medical University, China National Clinical Research Center for Geriatric Medicine, Beijing 100053, China.
Maturitas
|August 1, 2024
概括
内在能力的下降显著增加了中国老年人的死亡风险. 认知衰退是最强的预测因素,强调需要有针对性的干预措施来改善健康结果.
科学领域:
- 老年学是一门学科.
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 内在能力 (IC) 涵盖了个人一生的功能能力.
- 关于IC对中国人口长期死亡率的预测价值的研究有限.
研究的目的:
- 研究中国老年人内在能力与长期不良结果之间的关联.
- 评估IC域对死亡率的预测能力.
主要方法:
- 利用了北京长度老龄化研究 (n=1699,年龄≥60岁) 的数据.
- 在8年内跟踪参与者,根据世卫组织的标准评估IC.
- 采用Cox的比例危险模型来评估对不良结果的预测能力.
主要成果:
- 42.9%的参与者经历了IC领域的下降.
- 运动,认知,活力,感官和心理领域的下降被注意到.
- 较低的IC和较大的IC下降强烈预测了8年死亡率的增加 (整体IC下降HR2.91,P<0.001).
- 认知能力下降是死亡率最重要的预测因素 (HR 3.17,P<0.001).
结论:
- 内在能力是识别老年人健康不良结果风险较高的一个有价值的工具.
- 这些发现对中国制定医疗保健政策有重大影响,以支持老龄化人口.
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