实现净零温室气体排放对于限制气候倾斜风险至关重要
Tessa Möller1,2,3,4,5, Annika Ernest Högner6,7,8, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner9,10,11
1Energy, Climate and Environment Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria. moeller@iiasa.ac.at.
Nature communications
|August 1, 2024
概括
即使是暂时的全球变暖超过1.5°C,也有可能引发气候临界点. 紧急减排在本十年至关重要,以尽量减少长期的行星不稳定性和减少倾斜风险.
科学领域:
- 地球系统科学 地球系统科学
- 气候动力学 气候动力学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 目前的排放轨迹表明,临时超过"巴黎协定"规定的1.5°C全球变暖极限的可能性很高.
- 永久性超过这一门会显著增加激活关键气候倾斜因素的风险.
- 了解这些临界点的概率和驱动因素对于有效的气候变化缓解至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查与各种政策相关的未来排放场景相关的倾斜风险.
- 在不同的变暖轨迹下量化触发气候倾斜元素的概率.
- 评估全球变暖过度冲击对气候倾斜风险的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用一种风格化的地球系统模型,结合了四个相互连接的气候倾斜元素.
- 分析了几个与政策相关的未来排放场景.
- 在不同的变暖水平和排放途径中量化倾斜风险.
主要成果:
- 按照目前的政策,承诺到2300年将有45%的倾斜风险,即使温度返回低于1.5°C.
- 2300时的倾斜风险会随着每0.1°C超出1.5°C而升级.
- 在高温峰值超过2.0°C时,风险显著加快.
结论:
- 到2100年实现和维持净零温室气体排放对于长期气候稳定至关重要.
- 在当前十年内严格减少排放量至关重要,以最大限度地降低引发气候倾斜因素的可能性.
- 迫切需要采取气候行动,以避免不可逆转的临界点,并确保地球的稳定.
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