使用LA-AIDS模型进行树木坚果需求分析:印度经济悖论的一个例子
David Forgenie1, Karambir Singh Dhayal2, Satesh Sookhai3
1Department of Agricultural Economics and Extension, Faculty of Food and Agriculture, The University of the West Indies, St. Augustine Campus, Trinidad and Tobago.
Heliyon
|August 2, 2024
概括
由于收入上升,印度进口的树核比出口的更多. 果仁的需求很高,显示出显著的收入弹性和价格弹性,这表明需要增加国内生产.
科学领域:
- 农业经济学 农业经济学
- 消费需求分析 消费需求分析
- 国际贸易 国际贸易 国际贸易
背景情况:
- 印度是全球主要的树木坚果生产国,但也是净进口国.
- 了解进口需求驱动因素对于市场平衡至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析印度对进口树果的需求.
- 计算关键类别的收入和价格弹性.
- 调查进口坚果之间的替代效应.
主要方法:
- 使用线性近似几乎理想的需求系统 (LA/AIDS) 模型.
- 联合国商贸 (2014-2022) 的雇佣月进口数据.
- 杏仁,果仁,核桃,核桃和子的估计弹性.
主要成果:
- 所有进口的树坚果都是普通商品.
- 果仁表现出高的收入弹性 (1.2) 和价格弹性 (-1.3).
- 在杏仁和果仁之间观察到显著的替代.
结论:
- 收入的上升推动了对进口树木坚果的需求,特别是果仁.
- 建议加强国内果仁生产和战略营销.
- 战略旨在减少对进口的依赖,并促进可持续的市场.
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