基于模型的分析,以确定影响COVID-19期间影响电力缺口的因素的影响:德国的一个案例研究
Nanae Kaneko1, Yu Fujimoto2, Hans-Arno Jacobsen3
1School of Advanced Science and Engineering, Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan.
Heliyon
|August 2, 2024
概括
COVID-19大流行改变了电力需求,扩大了实际和预测使用之间的差距. 本研究使用时间序列预测和稀疏建模来确定影响这种需求差距的关键经济和生活方式因素.
科学领域:
- 能源经济学 能源经济学
- 时间序列分析时间序列分析
- 流行病影响研究研究.
背景情况:
- 随着COVID-19的流行,经济和生活方式发生了重大变化,改变了电力需求模式.
- 在全球范围内,实际和预测使用之间的电力需求差距显著增加.
- 以前的研究集中在与大流行相关的事件,如封锁,忽视经济和生活方式因素.
研究的目的:
- 在COVID-19大流行期间调查影响电力需求差距的关键因素.
- 开发和应用一种新的方法来识别影响电力消耗变化的关键变量.
- 评估已识别的变量对电力需求差距的影响.
主要方法:
- 使用了时间序列预测和稀疏建模的综合方法.
- 该方法旨在确定影响电力需求差距的关键因素.
- 分析重点是每小时的电力消耗数据和相关的影响变量.
主要成果:
- 该研究成功地确定了在疫情期间发生显著变化的关键变量.
- 该方法有效地评估了这些变量对电力需求差距的影响.
- 突出了影响电力需求的重要经济和生活方式因素.
结论:
- 了解电力需求差距的驱动因素对于能源部门的利益相关者来说至关重要.
- 开发的方法为分析危机期间需求波动提供了一个强大的框架.
- 这些发现为开发有效的战略提供了洞察力,以在不断变化的条件下管理电力需求.
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