重建120年的气候变化对约书亚树开花的影响
Jeremy B Yoder1, Ana Karina Andrade1, Lesley A DeFalco2
1Department of Biology, California State University Northridge, Northridge, California, USA.
Ecology letters
|August 2, 2024
概括
气候变化影响约书亚树的开花,由于降水变化,有利的条件更频繁. 然而,气温上升和干旱可能会对未来的约书亚树招募产生负面影响.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候变化生物学 气候变化生物学
- 植物学 植物学
背景情况:
- 量化全球变化对野生种群的影响是很困难的,特别是对于缺乏系统数据的物种.
- 约书亚树 (Yucca brevifolia和Y. jaegeriana) 是摩哈韦沙漠的基石物种.
- 化,或同步生产种子,对于植物种群动态至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 使用众包数据推断气候变化对约书亚树杆的影响.
- 根据环境因素,开发基于约书亚树开花的预测模型.
- 为了重建历史的开花模式和评估长期趋势.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自 iNaturalist 众包平台的约书亚树的 10,212 张地理参考图像.
- 在收集的图像中注释了表相 (开花).
- 训练有素的机器学习模型使用年度天气记录来预测开花事件.
主要成果:
- 推迟到1900年成功恢复了历史上的开花事件.
- 发现自20世纪初以来,支持开花的条件略有增加.
- 确定增加降水变化是雨季杆的驱动因素,以及气温上升和干旱压力的负面影响.
结论:
- 众包观测对研究气候变化对生物多样性的影响有价值.
- 虽然开花条件变得越来越频繁,但干旱压力的增加可能会威胁到约书亚树的招募.
- 了解这些气候驱动的动态对于保护工作至关重要.
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