机器学习与传统统计建模的比较,用于预测急性心力衰竭后住院再接收的情况
Karem Abdul-Samad1, Shihao Ma2, David E Austin3
1Ted Rogers Centre for Heart Research, Toronto, Canada; University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada; ICES (formerly Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences), Toronto, Canada.
American heart journal
|August 2, 2024
概括
与机器学习模型相比,传统的统计模型在预测30天心力衰竭再入院时表现出更高的校准性,尽管歧视程度相似. 校准对于ML预测模型至关重要.
科学领域:
- 心血管医学 心血管医学
- 医疗信息学 医疗信息学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 在医疗保健中,准确预测30天再入院的情况至关重要.
- 机器学习 (ML) 模型显示了比传统的统计模型 (CSM) 更好的歧视潜力.
- 对于 ML 模型用于再接收风险预测的校准性能仍然不清楚.
研究的目的:
- 为了比较ML模型与CSM对心力衰竭 (HF) 患者30天再入院的预测性表现.
- 评估心血管和非心血管再入院的原因.
- 评估歧视和对开发模型的校准.
主要方法:
- 在加拿大安大略省,2004年至2007年期间出院的10,919名成年HF患者的回顾性分析.
- 使用细灰竞争风险回归 (CSM) 和竞争风险随机生存森林 (RSF-CR) (ML) 开发的模型.
- 模型在2:1培训/验证分区使用歧视 (c-统计) 和校准指标进行验证.
主要成果:
- 对于30天的心血管再入院,RSF-CR (c-统计=0.620) 和Fine-Gray (c-统计=0.621) 显示了类似的歧视.
- 在30天的非心血管再入院中,细灰 (c-统计=0.641) 略高于RSF-CR (c-统计=0.632).
- 与RSF-CR相比,Fine-Gray模型在两种再接收类型中都表现出优异的校准.
结论:
- 传统的统计模型 (细灰) 显示出比ML模型 (RSF-CR) 更好的校准,用于预测30天的高频再接收.
- 在所有模型中,不管采用哪种方法,歧视程度都很小.
- 强调了基于机器学习的预测模型报告校准指标的重要性.
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